9 Man Sit And Go Strategy
2021年9月3日Register here: http://gg.gg/vwd7x
Strategy: Sit & Go. Advanced Bubble Play for Six-Max Sit’n’Gos Introduction In this article. Why an adjustment of strategy is necessary in 6-max SNGs. ICM is a useful tool for sit’n’go play, it isn’t perfect and there are situations where it may be correct to deviate from it. Additionally, because the blinds pass through us more. The sit n go’s you play – The bigger the field, the more variance and dry spells you should be prepared for. So you’ll want a bigger bankroll for 180-man sit n go’s compared to 18 or 45-mans. The stakes you play – The larger the stakes you play the bigger the bankroll you’ll.
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Games
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Against
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy PlanCasino Games Online › Card Games › Poker › Poker Variance Calculation for 9 Player SNG
Today we are about to calculate the variation specifically focused on Poker, namely on the Sit and Go (SNG) mini-tournament for 9 players. It will be shown, how we can calculate the expected profit in a single SNG and how real profit can vary from the expected profit based on the variance. That e.g. will give us the answer for this question: ’How many SNGs do we have to play in order to reach a zero profit at worst?’ The knowledge of the variance is a must for every serious poker player.Basics
If the topic ’Poker Variance’ is completely new to you or you are less familiar with that, try going through our prior published articles, where you will find both basic and advanced information. We believe that they are very useful and will give you a flavor of what it is about:
*What Is Variance and $ EV Adjusted?
You can find out a basic description of the variance and a role of chance. Additionally we introduce a way that enables to calculate whether you have been lucky or unlucky in a certain period of time.
*The Meaning and Step-by-Step Calculation of Variance based on a Simple Example.
The principle, meaning and calculation of the variance is explained in detail by a simple example of two coin flipping games. You only need paper, pen and calculator to persuade yourself that it is not as hard as it may seem at first sight. The calculations of variance in poker are completely the same and today’s example of the 9 max SNG are based on it as well.Example of 9 Player Sit and Go
In today’s example of poker variance calculation we will play a SNG tournament for 9 players with the buy-in $5+0.5. The first three places are paid in the ratio 50/30/20. The prize pool is 9 players × $5 = $45. The fifty cents is a commission for an operator of the tournament (rake) that does not come into the prize pool.
For the first place a player receives 50% of $45, thus $22.50. The net profit, i.e. after deduction of $5, is $17.50. The same procedure is used for the remaining paid positions. While, to make this example easier, we do not take into account the rake and rake back and/or any other bonuses that could be obtained for playing. We can recap the possible earnings (net ones are in the brackets):
1st place: $22.50 ($17.50),
2nd place: $13.50 ($8.50),
3rd place: $9.00 ($4.00),
4th – 9th unpaid positions: $0.00 (-$5.00).
What is the expected earning? First we have to look into the statistics to find out how frequently we get on the paid positions. The data can be stipulated in pro cents directly or in absolute counts. For instance we could see that we were able to win the first place 1,300 times out of 10,000 SNGs, that is 13%. This number can be considered as the probability of winning the 1st place again in the future. Let us say that the probabilities of placing in the tournament are the following (in pro cents):
1st place: 13%;
2nd place: 12%;
3rd place: 10%;
4th – 9th unpaid positions: 65% (completion of 100%).Calculations of EV, VAR and SD
We have the two essential data: (1) the probabilities of placing in the tournament and (2) the net earnings that we are likely to gain; but of course we also consider the possibility of ending up on the unpaid place and thus of losing the buy-in. That is all we need for all calculations; they are:
*Expected earnings (or profit however it can be negative too) based on the expected value (EV);
*Variance (VAR) as the squared dispersion from the expected profit; and
*Standard deviation (SD) that enables us to determine the intervals, in which our real earnings are to be found with the very high likelihood.
All input data (the probabilities and the net earnings) as well as the calculations are shown in tabular manner by Table 1.9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Games
Table 1 – The calculation of EV, VAR and SD for 9 player Sit and Go
The values of EV, VAR and SD were arrived at by the below calculations. If it is needed and/or desirable for you to understand them better, please visit the above-recommended page Variance – A Simple Example, whereas all calculations are commented clearly in high detail.
EV = 0.13 × $17.5 + 0.12 × $8.5 + 0.1 × $4 + 0.65 × (−$5) = $2.275 + $1.020 + $0.400 − $3.250 = $0.445.
Very briefly to the EV: the probabilities of placing (in decimal form, 13% = 0.13 etc.) times the possible earnings minus the probability of losing times the loss of the buy-in.
After a single SNG tournament for 9 players we can expect—based on our long-term results—the profit of precisely $0.445 (or 44.5 cents). That would indicate the Return On Investment (ROI) = 8.09% ($0.445 divided by the buy-in $5.5 times 100%).
VAR = 0.13 × ($17.5 − $0.445)2 + 0.12 × ($8.5 − $0.445)2 + 0.1 × ($4 − $0.445)2 + 0.65 × (−$5 − $0.445)2 = $66.13.
The variance (VAR) shows the possible dispersion of the values (earnings). By squaring the differences between the individual earnings and the expected earning we make all negative values turn positive. Then every squared difference is weighted (multiplied) by its probability (of placing in the tournament). And finally we get the standard deviation (SD)—which shows how much the real earnings can deviate (into both the minus and the plus) from the expected earnings (EV)—by simply extracting the root of the variance (VAR):
SD = square root of $66.13 = $8.13.
Please note that the calculations are made via MS Excel and not rounded. Excel uses 15 decimal values as standard, but we usually display only 2 of them.Likely Interval of the Real Earnings
Now we can use a statistical rule of three standard deviations (aka 3 SIGMA)—you do not have to think about it, but simply take it as a fact (you will recognize its practical value by the examples below)—, which says that:
*Almost 70% of all values (precisely 68.27%) is found in the interval EV ∓ SD;
*Approx. 95% of all values (precisely 95.45%) lies in the interval EV ∓ 2 × SD; and
*Approx. 99% of all values (precisely 99.73%) lies in the interval EV ∓ 3 × SD.
Can you see: one, two, three sigma(s)? In other words, precisely 68.27% of our possible earnings will be lying in the distance of minus/plus one standard deviation (SD) from the expected-mean value (EV); precisely 95.45% of all possible earnings will be lying in the distance (or the interval) of minus/plus two (times) standard deviation (2 SD) and precisely 99.73% in the interval of minus/plus three (times) standard deviation (3 SD) from the mean expected earnings (EV).
We will focus mainly on the two last intervals, 95% and 99% in a simplified way, that almost reach certainty (100%). Just an appendix: minus SD (with whatever multiplication) determines the lower limit of the interval (min), while plus SD gives the upper limit (max).After 1,000 SNGs Played .. What Can We Expect?
Suppose we decide to play 1,000 SNGs for 9 players. What can we expect and/or how can we utilize the above-mentioned knowledge and calculations of EV, VAR and SD?
We build up on a simple assumption that if we expect the average profit to be $0.445 in one SNG, then after 1,000 SNGs we can expect the one thousand times bigger profit (EV), thus 1,000 × $0.445 = $445. Also the variance (VAR) will be that bigger, i.e. 1,000 × $66.13 = $66,134 (let us remind that the calculations are not rounded). But be careful as the standard deviation (SD) is a square root of the variance (or a single SD times the square root of 1,000 tournaments played).
1,000 SNGs:
EV = 1,000 × $0.,445 = $445
VAR = 1,000 × $66.13 = $66,134
SD = square root of $66,134 = $257 (or $8.13 × square root of 1,000 = $257).
Let us determine the lower (min) and upper (max) limit of the intervals 95% and 99%.95% (precisely 95,45%):
min = EV − 2 × SD = $445 − 2 × $257 = −$69
max = EV + 2 × SD = $445 + 2 × $257 = +$959
What does result from these calculations? I expect the average earning or profit of $445 after 1,000 SNGs played. The real profit (or loss)—with 99.45% likelihood–will lie in the range between −$69 and +$959. It can also be said in these words: after 1,000 tournaments we should earn about $445, but if we were extremely unlucky, we could even lose $69 (downswing). On the other side it would be possible that if we were extraordinarily lucky (upswing), then we could earn up to $959 (both values as compared to the expected +$445).
We can state one more thing: Even though we are expected to win 44.5 cents out of each SNG $5+0.5 played, one thousand tournaments—with our variance—is insufficient to prove the expectation with the 95% likelihood as in the worst case scenario we could lose $69.
We can ask a question, how many SNGs do we have to play at minimum not to lose a dollar? It means that we look for such a number of tournaments n, whereas the lower limit of the interval (min) equals zero. After modifications we arrive at the following formula (in that the values of VAR and EV are for a single tournament):
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n = 4 × VAR ÷ EV2
After substitution into the formula n = 4 × $66.13 ÷ $0.4452 = approx. 1,336 tournaments.
We have to play at least 1,336 SNGs so that there is 95% likelihood that we end up with neither profit nor loss in the worst case scenario.
Let us see what happens if we want to increase the rate of likelihood to more than 99%.99% (precisely 99.73%):
min = EV − 3 × SD = $445 − 3 × $257 = −$326
max = EV + 3 × SD = $445 + 3 × $257 = +$1,216
With the rise of the likelihood to more than 99% we also have to count on the fact that the interval of all possible values (earnings) enlarges as well. Unlike the 95% interval we take minus/plus three standard deviations (3 SD) around the expected-mean value (EV).
The expected profit does not change and is the same $445 out of 1,000 SNGs, while there is more than 99% (99.73%) likelihood that our real profit (or loss) will range between −$326 and +$1,216. In case of extreme bad luck we could lose up to $326, even though we play a reasonably good poker (ROI = 8.09 %). The probability allows that. On the other hand the variance ’shoots’ the opposite direction too, hence, being very lucky, we could earn up to $1,216 in contrast to the expected $445. Again, the following question may be asked.
How many SNGs do we have to play not to lose a dollar with the 99.73% likelihood?
The basic condition is the same as for the 95% interval, the lower limit (min) must equal zero. However there are three standard deviations in effect (3 SD), hence the formula for the minimum number of tournaments n, is the following:
n = 9 × VAR ÷ EV2
Let us input the values of VAR and EV for a single SNG into the formula:
n = 9 × $66.13 ÷ $0.4452 = approx. 3,006 SNGs.
We would have to play 3,006 tournaments at minimum in order to reach at least zero profit with the 99.73% likelihood. Have you noticed that the rising of the probability of not losing by about 4 pro cent points (from 95.45% to 99.73%) means that the number of tournaments played must be more than doubled? Let us verify it and the calculations.
3,006 SNGs:
EV = 3,006 × $0.445 = $1,338
VAR = 3,006 × $66.13 = $198,800
SD = square root of $198,800 = $446
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min = EV − 3 × SD = $1,338 − 3 × $446 = $0
max = EV + 3 × SD = $1,338 + 3 × $446 = +$2,676
We can see that after 3,006 SNGs played we are expected to earn $1,338 (that is an estimation of average or mean value) and that—with the 99.73% likelihood—we can end up with zero profit at worst, thus not losing a dollar.Conclusion
This example of the poker variance calculation for a Sit and Go tournament for 9 players has shown the meaning of variance and its impact on the practical play. Even a good poker player—poker is about skill, not chance—with a good strategy, which secures him a long-term positive return (ROI), may experience a period of time, when he earns nothing or even loses. The reason is the variance as it represents possible deviations from the player’s long-term expected profit (= ROI).
The poker player must accept the variance as a fact and be patient. It may be unpleasant, especially when having bad luck period. Nevertheless with a good long-run strategy the variance is suppressed—the more hands (tournaments) are played, the closer the results will move towards the long-term average. It is desirable for any player to strive for the maximum EV possible and the minimum VAR possible.
As the variance works both directions (minus/plus), it may even be pleasant as it shows how high your earnings can go when being extremely lucky. However in the long run—that is after a great number of games/tournaments played—the earnings come back to the average.
Higher variance demands bigger capital and better bankroll management. With greater deviations one needs to have a bigger capital and play a greater number of tournaments so that his (good) strategy can prevail. Therefore the player who seeks as stable earnings as possible, or even does poker playing for living, must be interested in as low variance as possible.
The article is based on my Czech article Výpočet variance u Sit and Go turnaje pro 9 hráčů.Our Most Recommended Poker Sites for Sit & Go’sPoker SiteUSA?BonusRegisterReview#1YES$1000Sign UpBetOnline Review#2YES$1000Sign UpSportsBetting.ag Poker Review
Of all the questions that poker noobs ask, sit and go bankroll strategy questions are the most common. Well, maybe questions about starting hands and charts. But it’s close.9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Against
Anyway…
The problem with answering bankroll management questions is that the answers are all relative. It depends. What does it depend on?
*You – Are you any good at sit n go’s, or do you suck at them? If you’re a losing player, you’re going to lose money at a faster clip than a breakeven or winning player will. So you’ll want a deeper bankroll to account for that.
*Your goals – Do you just want to play a couple hours a day for fun, or do you want to eventually become a pro player? Being a pro player is like owning your own business — you need money to run your business (buy-ins, tools, coaching, etc), and then you need money on top of that to pay your bills and live. You’ll also need extra money to make it through the days/weeks/months where you don’t make anything at all.
*The sit n go’s you play – The bigger the field, the more variance and dry spells you should be prepared for. So you’ll want a bigger bankroll for 180-man sit n go’s compared to 18 or 45-mans.
*The stakes you play – The larger the stakes you play the bigger the bankroll you’ll want to have. For one thing, larger stakes means larger swings. And usually higher stakes games means more regulars (good players), so your edge will be lower, thus your ROI / earnings will be lower.
*The variations you play – You’ll have more variance in turbos compared to non-turbos. Double or nothings yield smaller ROIs than non double or nothings. Etc.
Get it? This is why giving any sort of bankroll guidelines is difficult (and pointless). There are just so many pieces that you need to put together to have any sort of clue as to how much money you need to play on.
But that doesn’t mean it has to be complicated.Your Sit n Go Bankroll — A Starting Point
I realize that you probably didn’t come to this page to be told that coming up with bankroll guidelines is pointless, and that there are a lot of variables to it. I imagine you’re here for an answer, some advice on how much money you need. So let’s see if I can help.
As a rule of thumb, most winning players aren’t going to see swings in excess of 30 buy-ins or so. I like being risk averse with my bankroll, so I would add 20 buy-ins to that. So my recommendation to you is to have 50-buyins minimum for any sit n go you wish to play. That means $150 for the $3 games, $300 for the $6s, $1,000 for the $20s, etc.
From here, it’s just a matter of adjusting your bankroll to fit the points I made above. If you suck at sit n go’s, add some buy-ins. If you’re going to play pro, add some buy-ins. Like to live life on the edge? Remove some buy-ins then. It’s all up to you.When to Move Up in Stakes
Another common question from players is when should they move up in stakes? The easiest answer is this:
When you have 50 buy-ins for the next level up.
So, if you start off at the $6s with $300, and the next level up are the $15s, then you’ll want to build your bankroll up to a minimum of $750.
That’s the simple answer.
The difficult answer is that moving up in stakes has just as much to do with your skill set, sample size and goals, as it does the amount of money you have in your bankroll currently.
You can have a 200x the buy-in for the next level, but if you’ve only played 500 games of your current stakes and you’re fairly new, you might want to give it more time to let the variance average out. You’ll lose a lot of time, confidence and money by moving up based on the size of your bankroll alone. But that’s really for another article.When to Move Down Regarding Your Sit and Go Bankroll Strategy
As much as I’d like to say that another common question from players is when to move down in stakes, I can’t, because players don’t ask that question.
The same idea applies though. As a rule of thumb I would move down in stakes when you have roughly 50 buy-ins for the stake below you.
For example, if you started off at the $6s with $300, I would drop down to the $3s when I hit $150 — 50 buy-ins f
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Strategy: Sit & Go. Advanced Bubble Play for Six-Max Sit’n’Gos Introduction In this article. Why an adjustment of strategy is necessary in 6-max SNGs. ICM is a useful tool for sit’n’go play, it isn’t perfect and there are situations where it may be correct to deviate from it. Additionally, because the blinds pass through us more. The sit n go’s you play – The bigger the field, the more variance and dry spells you should be prepared for. So you’ll want a bigger bankroll for 180-man sit n go’s compared to 18 or 45-mans. The stakes you play – The larger the stakes you play the bigger the bankroll you’ll.
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Games
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Against
*9 Man Sit And Go Strategy PlanCasino Games Online › Card Games › Poker › Poker Variance Calculation for 9 Player SNG
Today we are about to calculate the variation specifically focused on Poker, namely on the Sit and Go (SNG) mini-tournament for 9 players. It will be shown, how we can calculate the expected profit in a single SNG and how real profit can vary from the expected profit based on the variance. That e.g. will give us the answer for this question: ’How many SNGs do we have to play in order to reach a zero profit at worst?’ The knowledge of the variance is a must for every serious poker player.Basics
If the topic ’Poker Variance’ is completely new to you or you are less familiar with that, try going through our prior published articles, where you will find both basic and advanced information. We believe that they are very useful and will give you a flavor of what it is about:
*What Is Variance and $ EV Adjusted?
You can find out a basic description of the variance and a role of chance. Additionally we introduce a way that enables to calculate whether you have been lucky or unlucky in a certain period of time.
*The Meaning and Step-by-Step Calculation of Variance based on a Simple Example.
The principle, meaning and calculation of the variance is explained in detail by a simple example of two coin flipping games. You only need paper, pen and calculator to persuade yourself that it is not as hard as it may seem at first sight. The calculations of variance in poker are completely the same and today’s example of the 9 max SNG are based on it as well.Example of 9 Player Sit and Go
In today’s example of poker variance calculation we will play a SNG tournament for 9 players with the buy-in $5+0.5. The first three places are paid in the ratio 50/30/20. The prize pool is 9 players × $5 = $45. The fifty cents is a commission for an operator of the tournament (rake) that does not come into the prize pool.
For the first place a player receives 50% of $45, thus $22.50. The net profit, i.e. after deduction of $5, is $17.50. The same procedure is used for the remaining paid positions. While, to make this example easier, we do not take into account the rake and rake back and/or any other bonuses that could be obtained for playing. We can recap the possible earnings (net ones are in the brackets):
1st place: $22.50 ($17.50),
2nd place: $13.50 ($8.50),
3rd place: $9.00 ($4.00),
4th – 9th unpaid positions: $0.00 (-$5.00).
What is the expected earning? First we have to look into the statistics to find out how frequently we get on the paid positions. The data can be stipulated in pro cents directly or in absolute counts. For instance we could see that we were able to win the first place 1,300 times out of 10,000 SNGs, that is 13%. This number can be considered as the probability of winning the 1st place again in the future. Let us say that the probabilities of placing in the tournament are the following (in pro cents):
1st place: 13%;
2nd place: 12%;
3rd place: 10%;
4th – 9th unpaid positions: 65% (completion of 100%).Calculations of EV, VAR and SD
We have the two essential data: (1) the probabilities of placing in the tournament and (2) the net earnings that we are likely to gain; but of course we also consider the possibility of ending up on the unpaid place and thus of losing the buy-in. That is all we need for all calculations; they are:
*Expected earnings (or profit however it can be negative too) based on the expected value (EV);
*Variance (VAR) as the squared dispersion from the expected profit; and
*Standard deviation (SD) that enables us to determine the intervals, in which our real earnings are to be found with the very high likelihood.
All input data (the probabilities and the net earnings) as well as the calculations are shown in tabular manner by Table 1.9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Games
Table 1 – The calculation of EV, VAR and SD for 9 player Sit and Go
The values of EV, VAR and SD were arrived at by the below calculations. If it is needed and/or desirable for you to understand them better, please visit the above-recommended page Variance – A Simple Example, whereas all calculations are commented clearly in high detail.
EV = 0.13 × $17.5 + 0.12 × $8.5 + 0.1 × $4 + 0.65 × (−$5) = $2.275 + $1.020 + $0.400 − $3.250 = $0.445.
Very briefly to the EV: the probabilities of placing (in decimal form, 13% = 0.13 etc.) times the possible earnings minus the probability of losing times the loss of the buy-in.
After a single SNG tournament for 9 players we can expect—based on our long-term results—the profit of precisely $0.445 (or 44.5 cents). That would indicate the Return On Investment (ROI) = 8.09% ($0.445 divided by the buy-in $5.5 times 100%).
VAR = 0.13 × ($17.5 − $0.445)2 + 0.12 × ($8.5 − $0.445)2 + 0.1 × ($4 − $0.445)2 + 0.65 × (−$5 − $0.445)2 = $66.13.
The variance (VAR) shows the possible dispersion of the values (earnings). By squaring the differences between the individual earnings and the expected earning we make all negative values turn positive. Then every squared difference is weighted (multiplied) by its probability (of placing in the tournament). And finally we get the standard deviation (SD)—which shows how much the real earnings can deviate (into both the minus and the plus) from the expected earnings (EV)—by simply extracting the root of the variance (VAR):
SD = square root of $66.13 = $8.13.
Please note that the calculations are made via MS Excel and not rounded. Excel uses 15 decimal values as standard, but we usually display only 2 of them.Likely Interval of the Real Earnings
Now we can use a statistical rule of three standard deviations (aka 3 SIGMA)—you do not have to think about it, but simply take it as a fact (you will recognize its practical value by the examples below)—, which says that:
*Almost 70% of all values (precisely 68.27%) is found in the interval EV ∓ SD;
*Approx. 95% of all values (precisely 95.45%) lies in the interval EV ∓ 2 × SD; and
*Approx. 99% of all values (precisely 99.73%) lies in the interval EV ∓ 3 × SD.
Can you see: one, two, three sigma(s)? In other words, precisely 68.27% of our possible earnings will be lying in the distance of minus/plus one standard deviation (SD) from the expected-mean value (EV); precisely 95.45% of all possible earnings will be lying in the distance (or the interval) of minus/plus two (times) standard deviation (2 SD) and precisely 99.73% in the interval of minus/plus three (times) standard deviation (3 SD) from the mean expected earnings (EV).
We will focus mainly on the two last intervals, 95% and 99% in a simplified way, that almost reach certainty (100%). Just an appendix: minus SD (with whatever multiplication) determines the lower limit of the interval (min), while plus SD gives the upper limit (max).After 1,000 SNGs Played .. What Can We Expect?
Suppose we decide to play 1,000 SNGs for 9 players. What can we expect and/or how can we utilize the above-mentioned knowledge and calculations of EV, VAR and SD?
We build up on a simple assumption that if we expect the average profit to be $0.445 in one SNG, then after 1,000 SNGs we can expect the one thousand times bigger profit (EV), thus 1,000 × $0.445 = $445. Also the variance (VAR) will be that bigger, i.e. 1,000 × $66.13 = $66,134 (let us remind that the calculations are not rounded). But be careful as the standard deviation (SD) is a square root of the variance (or a single SD times the square root of 1,000 tournaments played).
1,000 SNGs:
EV = 1,000 × $0.,445 = $445
VAR = 1,000 × $66.13 = $66,134
SD = square root of $66,134 = $257 (or $8.13 × square root of 1,000 = $257).
Let us determine the lower (min) and upper (max) limit of the intervals 95% and 99%.95% (precisely 95,45%):
min = EV − 2 × SD = $445 − 2 × $257 = −$69
max = EV + 2 × SD = $445 + 2 × $257 = +$959
What does result from these calculations? I expect the average earning or profit of $445 after 1,000 SNGs played. The real profit (or loss)—with 99.45% likelihood–will lie in the range between −$69 and +$959. It can also be said in these words: after 1,000 tournaments we should earn about $445, but if we were extremely unlucky, we could even lose $69 (downswing). On the other side it would be possible that if we were extraordinarily lucky (upswing), then we could earn up to $959 (both values as compared to the expected +$445).
We can state one more thing: Even though we are expected to win 44.5 cents out of each SNG $5+0.5 played, one thousand tournaments—with our variance—is insufficient to prove the expectation with the 95% likelihood as in the worst case scenario we could lose $69.
We can ask a question, how many SNGs do we have to play at minimum not to lose a dollar? It means that we look for such a number of tournaments n, whereas the lower limit of the interval (min) equals zero. After modifications we arrive at the following formula (in that the values of VAR and EV are for a single tournament):
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n = 4 × VAR ÷ EV2
After substitution into the formula n = 4 × $66.13 ÷ $0.4452 = approx. 1,336 tournaments.
We have to play at least 1,336 SNGs so that there is 95% likelihood that we end up with neither profit nor loss in the worst case scenario.
Let us see what happens if we want to increase the rate of likelihood to more than 99%.99% (precisely 99.73%):
min = EV − 3 × SD = $445 − 3 × $257 = −$326
max = EV + 3 × SD = $445 + 3 × $257 = +$1,216
With the rise of the likelihood to more than 99% we also have to count on the fact that the interval of all possible values (earnings) enlarges as well. Unlike the 95% interval we take minus/plus three standard deviations (3 SD) around the expected-mean value (EV).
The expected profit does not change and is the same $445 out of 1,000 SNGs, while there is more than 99% (99.73%) likelihood that our real profit (or loss) will range between −$326 and +$1,216. In case of extreme bad luck we could lose up to $326, even though we play a reasonably good poker (ROI = 8.09 %). The probability allows that. On the other hand the variance ’shoots’ the opposite direction too, hence, being very lucky, we could earn up to $1,216 in contrast to the expected $445. Again, the following question may be asked.
How many SNGs do we have to play not to lose a dollar with the 99.73% likelihood?
The basic condition is the same as for the 95% interval, the lower limit (min) must equal zero. However there are three standard deviations in effect (3 SD), hence the formula for the minimum number of tournaments n, is the following:
n = 9 × VAR ÷ EV2
Let us input the values of VAR and EV for a single SNG into the formula:
n = 9 × $66.13 ÷ $0.4452 = approx. 3,006 SNGs.
We would have to play 3,006 tournaments at minimum in order to reach at least zero profit with the 99.73% likelihood. Have you noticed that the rising of the probability of not losing by about 4 pro cent points (from 95.45% to 99.73%) means that the number of tournaments played must be more than doubled? Let us verify it and the calculations.
3,006 SNGs:
EV = 3,006 × $0.445 = $1,338
VAR = 3,006 × $66.13 = $198,800
SD = square root of $198,800 = $446
5 dazzling hot slot machine. We are still covering 99.73% of all possible earnings:
min = EV − 3 × SD = $1,338 − 3 × $446 = $0
max = EV + 3 × SD = $1,338 + 3 × $446 = +$2,676
We can see that after 3,006 SNGs played we are expected to earn $1,338 (that is an estimation of average or mean value) and that—with the 99.73% likelihood—we can end up with zero profit at worst, thus not losing a dollar.Conclusion
This example of the poker variance calculation for a Sit and Go tournament for 9 players has shown the meaning of variance and its impact on the practical play. Even a good poker player—poker is about skill, not chance—with a good strategy, which secures him a long-term positive return (ROI), may experience a period of time, when he earns nothing or even loses. The reason is the variance as it represents possible deviations from the player’s long-term expected profit (= ROI).
The poker player must accept the variance as a fact and be patient. It may be unpleasant, especially when having bad luck period. Nevertheless with a good long-run strategy the variance is suppressed—the more hands (tournaments) are played, the closer the results will move towards the long-term average. It is desirable for any player to strive for the maximum EV possible and the minimum VAR possible.
As the variance works both directions (minus/plus), it may even be pleasant as it shows how high your earnings can go when being extremely lucky. However in the long run—that is after a great number of games/tournaments played—the earnings come back to the average.
Higher variance demands bigger capital and better bankroll management. With greater deviations one needs to have a bigger capital and play a greater number of tournaments so that his (good) strategy can prevail. Therefore the player who seeks as stable earnings as possible, or even does poker playing for living, must be interested in as low variance as possible.
The article is based on my Czech article Výpočet variance u Sit and Go turnaje pro 9 hráčů.Our Most Recommended Poker Sites for Sit & Go’sPoker SiteUSA?BonusRegisterReview#1YES$1000Sign UpBetOnline Review#2YES$1000Sign UpSportsBetting.ag Poker Review
Of all the questions that poker noobs ask, sit and go bankroll strategy questions are the most common. Well, maybe questions about starting hands and charts. But it’s close.9 Man Sit And Go Strategy Against
Anyway…
The problem with answering bankroll management questions is that the answers are all relative. It depends. What does it depend on?
*You – Are you any good at sit n go’s, or do you suck at them? If you’re a losing player, you’re going to lose money at a faster clip than a breakeven or winning player will. So you’ll want a deeper bankroll to account for that.
*Your goals – Do you just want to play a couple hours a day for fun, or do you want to eventually become a pro player? Being a pro player is like owning your own business — you need money to run your business (buy-ins, tools, coaching, etc), and then you need money on top of that to pay your bills and live. You’ll also need extra money to make it through the days/weeks/months where you don’t make anything at all.
*The sit n go’s you play – The bigger the field, the more variance and dry spells you should be prepared for. So you’ll want a bigger bankroll for 180-man sit n go’s compared to 18 or 45-mans.
*The stakes you play – The larger the stakes you play the bigger the bankroll you’ll want to have. For one thing, larger stakes means larger swings. And usually higher stakes games means more regulars (good players), so your edge will be lower, thus your ROI / earnings will be lower.
*The variations you play – You’ll have more variance in turbos compared to non-turbos. Double or nothings yield smaller ROIs than non double or nothings. Etc.
Get it? This is why giving any sort of bankroll guidelines is difficult (and pointless). There are just so many pieces that you need to put together to have any sort of clue as to how much money you need to play on.
But that doesn’t mean it has to be complicated.Your Sit n Go Bankroll — A Starting Point
I realize that you probably didn’t come to this page to be told that coming up with bankroll guidelines is pointless, and that there are a lot of variables to it. I imagine you’re here for an answer, some advice on how much money you need. So let’s see if I can help.
As a rule of thumb, most winning players aren’t going to see swings in excess of 30 buy-ins or so. I like being risk averse with my bankroll, so I would add 20 buy-ins to that. So my recommendation to you is to have 50-buyins minimum for any sit n go you wish to play. That means $150 for the $3 games, $300 for the $6s, $1,000 for the $20s, etc.
From here, it’s just a matter of adjusting your bankroll to fit the points I made above. If you suck at sit n go’s, add some buy-ins. If you’re going to play pro, add some buy-ins. Like to live life on the edge? Remove some buy-ins then. It’s all up to you.When to Move Up in Stakes
Another common question from players is when should they move up in stakes? The easiest answer is this:
When you have 50 buy-ins for the next level up.
So, if you start off at the $6s with $300, and the next level up are the $15s, then you’ll want to build your bankroll up to a minimum of $750.
That’s the simple answer.
The difficult answer is that moving up in stakes has just as much to do with your skill set, sample size and goals, as it does the amount of money you have in your bankroll currently.
You can have a 200x the buy-in for the next level, but if you’ve only played 500 games of your current stakes and you’re fairly new, you might want to give it more time to let the variance average out. You’ll lose a lot of time, confidence and money by moving up based on the size of your bankroll alone. But that’s really for another article.When to Move Down Regarding Your Sit and Go Bankroll Strategy
As much as I’d like to say that another common question from players is when to move down in stakes, I can’t, because players don’t ask that question.
The same idea applies though. As a rule of thumb I would move down in stakes when you have roughly 50 buy-ins for the stake below you.
For example, if you started off at the $6s with $300, I would drop down to the $3s when I hit $150 — 50 buy-ins f
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